Columbia gets rosy employment forecast

by David Reed

June 15,2009

            Columbia is one of the only six metropolitan areas in the United States that is  expected to return to pre-recession employment levels by the end of this year, according to a forecast from IHS Global Insight.

            The other five cities predicted to have a 2009 rebound are: Anchorage, Alaska; Champaign-Urbana, Ill.; Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; Laredo, Texas; and the Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux areas of Louisiana. Only five cities are expected to see a recovery in 2010, and three of them are in Texas.

            IHS is an international forecasting firm with 700 employees and 25 offices. The analysis covered 325 metro areas and based its projections on previous employment data, employment growth, housing information, real gross state product and personal income. The report also looked at how the local economy reacted to recent incidents, such as natural disasters, the housing bubble and major business closings.

            Although Columbia is expected to have a quick recovery, 286 out of 325 regions studied in the analysis are not projected to reach their pre-recession employment levels until at least 2012. Six million jobs have been lost nationally since the recession began 18 months ago.

            Comparing Columbia in March of this year with March of 2009, the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent from 4.2 percent and the number of unemployed workers rose 1,781 to 5,636. However, the overall labor force in the metro area – 92,600 — remained virtually unchanged, according to data from the state Department of Labor.

Missouri's unemployment rate in March was 9.1 percent, up from 5.8 percent in March 2008.

The IHS report predicts Texas, Oklahoma, Utah and Alaska to be the first states recovering from the recession since their unemployment rates are lower than the national average, their economies are strongly tied to the energy industry as oil prices are rising and they have experienced relatively low job cuts.

            But, the report states some of the upper Midwest states, such as Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, will have a harder time catching up to the rest of the country mainly due to the anemic automobile industry.